AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Starts the Week off Lower

October 21, 2019

Corn futures are trading lower at Monday’s midday, seeing decreases of 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents in nearby contracts. Export inspections for the week ending 10/17 showed that corn exports had increased 10.6% over last week to 531,744 MT. That brought the MYTD total to 3,038,063 MT (119.6 mbu) only 38.2% of last year’s rate. Trade ideas for tonight’s USDA harvest progress are in the 30-33% range. The 5 year average would be 42%. The CFTC report on Friday afternoon showed managed money spec funds still net short; however as of 10/15 it was only at 66,141 contracts. This was the 4th consecutive week where managed money has reduced their net short position for corn futures.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents,

MAR 19 Corn is at $4.00 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn is at $4.07 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn is at $4.13 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Futures Mixed at Midday

October 21, 2019

Soybeans futures are fractionally mixed at Monday’s midday. Soybean meal is up 10 cents /ton, and so far soy oil is down 4 points. Soybean export inspections for the week ending 10/17 were released this morning. The report indicated shipments are 7.24% ahead of last year’s pace. Coming off of a 26.3% increase over last week, the 1.296 MMT of soybean exports brought the MYTD total to 6.458 MMT (237.3 mbu). The main destination for soybeans was China, with 207,445 MT (16%). Trade ideas for soybean harvest progress are running 37 to 40% for tonight’s report. The 5 year average pace is close to 64%. Brazil’s soybean crop is 21% planted according to AgRural, even with the 5-year average. Other sources show 23%. Private Chinese firms purchased 480,000 MT from Brazil last week, with no purchases from the U.S. There is speculation that the firms have exhausted their tariff exemptions for imports from the US. Government affiliated firms do not pay the tariff, and have continued to buy from the US.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.33 3/4, down 1/4 cent,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $9.47 1/2, unch,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.59 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.68, up 1/2 cent,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.60, up $0.10,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil is at $30.32, down $0.04

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat is Lower out of the Weekend

October 21, 2019

Nearby wheat futures are down by as much as 7 3/4 cents for winter wheats, and spring wheat is 5 1/4 cents lower at Monday’s midday. Wheat export inspections from the week ending 10/17 showed a increase in wk/wk wheat exports with 565,099 MT, up 67,631 from the week ending 10/10. The report indicated MYTD total is at 10.063 MMT (367.77 mbu), 18.3% ahead of last year’s pace. HRW wheat was the biggest component of the week’s total exports with a 36.4% share. HRS exports encompassed a 33.4% share of the week’s exports, while 22% were soft white. Crop Progress data is expected to show the winter wheat planting at 77% complete. Saudi Arabia purchased 605,000 MT of wheat in their recent tender. Algeria is also tendering for wheat with Tuesday deadline.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.24 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.26, down 7 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.39 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live Cattle up Feeders down

October 21, 2019

Live cattle futures are up by 12 to 32 cents in the front months, while feeder cattle futures are lower by 30 to 57 cents. The Cargill plant in Dodge City is back online today after an explosion left them shutdown late last week. China has lifted the 20-year ban on British beef, the two countries have finalized a 5 year trade deal worth over £230 million. Cash cattle traded at $107-109 Friday, and $173-175 in the meat. The 10/17 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 45 cent increase, and is up to $145.60. Wholesale boxed beef prices widen Monday’s ch/s spread to 26.52. Choice boxes are $1.50 higher to $219.54, while Select boxes are showing a 3 cent decrease to $193.01. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for last week @ 642,000 head. That is 10,000 head above the same week last year keeping the YTD ahead of last year’s pace by 280,000 head, at 26.5 million head.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $110.800, up $0.325,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.900, up $0.275,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $119.200, up $0.125,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.100, down $0.400

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.550, down $0.300

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle are at $138.875, down $0.575

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Higher at Midday

October 21, 2019

Lean Hog futures see increases of $0.45 to $1.12 in the nearby contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was up by $0.74 on Oct 17 to $65.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is $1.61 higher so far at $78.64 for Monday’s midday. The national average base hog for 10/18 was down 75 cents to $57.05. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week ending 10/19 is at 2.726 million head, up 16,000 head from last week and 167,000 larger than the same week’s total from last year. The year to date hog slaughter is 101.952 million head, outpacing last year by 3.61%.

DEC 19 Hogs are at $68.400, up $0.450,

FEB 19 Hogs are at $78.500, up $1.025

APR 20 Hogs are at $84.575, up $1.125

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Lower after Weekend

October 21, 2019

Cotton futures are down by 25 to 48 points at midday. The CFTC reported another reduction in managed money’s net short position, which as of Tuesday was 11,377 contracts. Crop Progress data will be released this afternoon showing harvest progress as of Sunday. The Cotlook A Index was 45 points higher on Oct 18, to 75.45 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP. Keerti Rathore, from Texas A&M, has successfully removed gossypol from cotton seeds, effectively rendering them harmless, and the FDA has approved her strain of seeds for consumption. Cotton seeds have 49.5 grams of protein/100 grams, and Rathore hopes they could be a suitable source of protein for feeds or developing nations that face malnutrition.

DEC 19 Cotton is at 64.68, down 48 points,

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.44, down 37 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.04, down 31 points

JUL 20 Cotton is at 66.51, down 25 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com